The Ballon d’Or winner will be announced in London on 26 October, and bookmakers have Spain winger Lamine Yamal and England captain Harry Kane very close together as the clear favourites.
Yamal won La Liga with Barcelona and the World Cup with Spain. Kane scored 73 goals for German champions Bayern Munich and England. Eight-time winner Lionel Messi, of Argentina and Inter Miami, and Real Madrid’s France forward Kylian Mbappe are the other probable candidates. Paris St-Germain’s back-to-back European champions also have a strong case.
We asked several of our football experts who they think should take home the award.
Lamine Yamal
European football expert Guillem Balague said he cannot imagine the award going to anyone other than a PSG or Spanish player. “So gone is Kylian Mbappe,” he said. He argued that the PSG contenders, including Fabian Ruiz, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Ousmane Dembele and Vitinha, will split the vote. “There is only one Spaniard who deserves it, and that’s Lamine Yamal, who has given us individual performances, collective trophies, and has that aura. He’s going to win it.”
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
European football expert Julien Laurens believes Kvaratskhelia was the best player in Europe last season, especially in the Champions League. He scored in both semi-finals, in the quarter-final and in the last 16, and he won the penalty in the final, helping PSG to back-to-back titles. “He deserves to win the Ballon d’Or for being the best player in the world all the way up to the World Cup,” Laurens said. However, he expects Yamal to win because of his entertaining and spectacular style, even though Yamal did not shine at the World Cup and was knocked out early by Barcelona in the Champions League.
Former Liverpool and Blackburn full-back Stephen Warnock predicts Yamal will win for helping Spain lift the World Cup. Warnock names Michael Olise as the next contender, but he would personally pick Kvaratskhelia. “He is unbelievable. I love watching him play,” Warnock said. He added that he does not think Kvaratskhelia will receive the votes because Georgia are not in the World Cup.
Rory Smith, a BBC Radio 5 Live Euro Leagues guest and Athletic reporter, thinks the award will probably go to Yamal because it usually goes to the player who has won the biggest trophy, which is the World Cup. He believes Yamal was not necessarily Spain’s most important player, but his fame and talent will carry him. Smith would give the award to Kvaratskhelia, however. “He has been the most exciting player in European club football for a while now,” he said, adding that a player should not suffer for coming from a nation that is not in the running for the World Cup.
Harry Kane
Former England striker Alan Shearer says Kane should win. “His numbers for the last 12 to 18 months have been absolutely sensational for Bayern and for England,” Shearer said.
Former England midfielder Danny Murphy also backs Kane, praising his relentless goalscoring. “He’s had one of the best seasons of his career and it’ll be a great reward for him if he gets the trophy,” Murphy said. He added that Kane has adapted well at Bayern Munich and has been the best centre-forward in the world over the last 12 months.
Former Tottenham and Crystal Palace forward Andros Townsend lists Kane’s achievements in detail. Kane scored 73 goals in 65 games, including 36 in the Bundesliga, and led Bayern Munich to the league and cup double. He also scored 14 Champions League goals, helping Bayern reach the semi-finals, and scored six goals at the World Cup, leading England to the semi-finals. “He has had an outstanding year,” Townsend said.
Former England striker Ellen White admits it is a tough call but says she will go with her heart. “I’d love to see Harry Kane win it,” she said. She acknowledged that Kane did not win the World Cup but described his numbers as extraordinary. White also said Yamal will win the Ballon d’Or one day and praised Michael Olise as phenomenal.
Norwegian football journalist Lars Sivertsen would also like to see Kane win. “He is a real leader at Bayern Munich. He never makes trouble and is a role model,” Sivertsen said. However, he wonders whether Kane’s low-key character counts against him. “The Ballon d’Or is a popularity contest,” he said. “I love that he doesn’t do all that but maybe he should.”